Natural disasters can devastate local communities and economies, and the vacation rental industry in the affected areas may take years to return to normal. As seen in the chart below from NOAA, there were 27 individual weather and climate disasters in the United States with at least $1 billion in damages in 2024. Destinations and property managers rely on data to react and respond to natural disasters, but the data can be tricky to interpret. These disasters are part of a worsening pattern, making it increasingly important for local stakeholders to understand how to use vacation rental data as part of their disaster response plan.
2024 was a particularly active storm season for the Atlantic basin; according to NOAA and Climate.gov, the region experienced 11 hurricanes and five major hurricanes with winds of 111 mph or greater, compared to seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes in a typical year. February 2025 was the one of the most active cyclone months on record, with twelve systems forming, seven storms named, and seven reaching Category 3 or higher.
Hurricane Beryl was the earliest Category-5 hurricane in the Atlantic basin on record. It caused significant storm surge flooding across parts of Texas and Louisiana after making landfall near Matagorda, Texas, as a Category-1 storm.
Helene, a Category-4 storm, made landfall on the Florida Gulf Coast on September 26, causing catastrophic flooding across the southern Appalachians, widespread wind damage from the Gulf Coast to the North Carolina mountains, and storm surge flooding along parts of western Florida.
Hurricane Milton, a Category-3 storm, hit near Siesta Key, Florida, on October 9. It triggered a tornado outbreak with 46 tornadoes and caused torrential rainfall and localized flooding with 10+ inches of total rainfall.
Cyclone Alfred, the fourth named storm in the Australian region, formed in the Coral Sea to the northeast of Australia in late February. The storm paralleled the Australian coast as it moved in a generally south-southeasterly direction.
Using examples from these three hurricanes and Cyclone Alfred, here are four items to consider when assessing the impact of natural disasters on the local vacation rental industry.
1. Occupancy will fall in the most-impacted destinations but increase in the surrounding region.
Local impact: Occupancy will likely decline in the destinations that are highly impacted by the natural disaster as guests cancel their trips. Note that guest occupancy will rarely be zero even after the worst storms. The decline will be moderated by relief workers who stay in vacation rentals. Further, some cancellation policies enable the collection of at least a portion of the expected revenue, even if the guests did not complete their trip.
Regional impact: Other destinations will likely see growth, as depicted in the visual above. Following Hurricane Milton, people who left Manatee and Pinellas counties largely went elsewhere in Florida. The Panhandle of Florida and Southeast Florida saw year-over-year occupancy increases of up to 30%, as individuals evacuated and looked for somewhere else to stay or vacationers chose different destinations.
2. A destination’s seasonality impacts how much revenue will be lost.
Seasonal revenue impacts: Seasonality can also play a part in the impact on vacation rentals. Hurricane Helene caused devastating flooding around Asheville, North Carolina, only days before a peak leaf-peeping season. Key Data’s property management partners saw a 69% year-over-year decrease in RevPAR during the month of October, and a 50% year-over-year decrease in RevPAR during Q4. The average rental generates 30% of its annual revenue during the last quarter of the year, making a natural disaster during that season especially harmful.
Larger economic impacts: However, in areas less affected by flooding or wind damage, post-hurricane FEMA assistance and insurance payouts can lead to spending spikes in the relocation areas. Evacuees also increase spending in host regions as they pay for lodging restaurants, transportation, and groceries. Disaster recovery also creates short-term employment spikes in construction, logistics, and emergency services. For example, Florida construction employment increased 12% in the year after Hurricane Michael (2018).
3. The extent to which supply will decline varies.
Understanding supply impacts: Supply is a tricky metric to measure, as it does not always drop. Property managers in Asheville, NC saw a 10% decrease in supply following Helene’s flooding, but supply can also remain somewhat steady as we saw after Hurricane Beryl in Texas.
Other KPIs to watch: Many property managers use holds or blocks on their calendars to mark that a property is unavailable for guests instead of removing the property from their platforms. Keep an eye on hold occupancy and available nights to understand how many properties are unavailable for guests.
4. It will take some time for the data to stabilize.
Property managers have many concerns and responsibilities following major weather events. Their focus shifts to safety and communication with guests and owners. The most pressing duties involve assessing property damage, determining necessary repairs, and evaluating accessibility within the surrounding area. Updating property management systems with this information can take weeks or months, delaying the full picture of the disaster's impact.
In Australia and New Zealand, Cyclone Alfred was anticipated to be one of the most significant weather events in recent Australian history. Cyclone Alfred prompted watches, warnings and evacuations in South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales, an area which has rarely seen direct impacts from tropical cyclones. According to our direct data, the cyclone sparked a 206% year-over-year increase in nights canceled in the Sunshine Coast, contributing to a 62% year-over-year occupancy decrease. Occupancy often stays low after the storm as potential guests travel elsewhere, and the Sunshine Coast is pacing 55% behind last year for the next 60 days. This is a developing situation that we will continue to monitor and assist our property management partners in any way we can.
Our Partner Success Managers can help you evaluate the impact of a weather event on the vacation rental industry in your area. We stand with the property managers across the globe impacted by increasingly volatile weather events.